the obligatory 2012 prediction blog

2011 was quite a year wasn’t it?  All over the whole world I doubt there were few hidey-holes that political, social, or environmental turmoil didn’t touch.  From the unexplained animals deaths, to the population hitting 7 billion, to the sort-of discovery of Higgs-Boson, to the Arab Spring and Occupy’s mobilization… the limits of our planet, technology, science, and history were repeatedly tested.

Last night, a friend of mine asked me if I had any predictions for 2012.

I laughed and asked him what kind of predictions he meant – individual, political, environmental…

“Just an overview,” he said, “of what you think is going to happen in 2012.”

Before I could answer, I felt compelled to qualify anything I was about to say with why I dislike making predictions… So I tried to explain the principles of quantitative social analysis to him.  I noted that predictions could only be made with awareness of the variables that actually cause variation in the variable you are trying to predict.  Models of predictability are only as good as the data you enter into it, and of course, you can only account for the variables you can know, and measure.

Problem is, I believe, most of the variables that actually matter in this whole business of predicting what is going to happen in 2012, are unknowable and unmeasurable… Because they are inner workings, not outer workings.

That said, there are definitely environmental/social/political/ factors that are indeed measurable, and will interact with the unknowable ones, potentially affecting how those inner workings react and manifest.

At this stage in the game, I can see this thing called humanity, going in a few different directions.

On one extreme end of the spectrum, there is the path that facilitates the emergence of the police-status quo-state, and complete crack-down on the individual’s rights and freedoms.  This path heads us in the direction of a perverted Orwellian type of society… where reproduction and daily function is controlled, and class/status becomes the entrenched mechanism of physical survival.  The Internet is no longer a place for the free exchange of ideas.  If you dissent, you are branded a terrorist, and legally locked away, so as not to spread your dissent through the masses who are easily controlled.

For this path to emerge, inner-workings must be dominated by fear and anxiety in 2012.  Complacency will continue to be manifested through shiny objects.  And reality will continue be manipulated with fairy tales.  With the outer-workings, incarceration rates will go up, because the definition of terrorist/criminal will be widened, and there will be a significant change in the way the Internet works.

On the other extreme end of the spectrum, there is a path that facilitates the age of the individual, and complete and uncontrollable assertion of the individual’s rights and freedoms.  This path heads us in the direction of a perverted Huxleylian type of society.  Where individuality and aesthetic beauty reign supreme… where reproduction and daily function is controlled internally, through the seeking of pleasure, and individuality/skillfulness becomes the entrenched mechanism of physical survival. The Internet is a place for self-promotion and entertainment. If you dissent, you are branded crazy, and cast away to an island where the people who don’t like it, are shipped to.

For this path to emerge, inner-workings must be dominated by entitlement and frustration in 2012.  Empowerment will be manifested through techno-objects.  And people will not be afraid to laugh at the emperor and tell him that he is not wearing clothes.  With the outer-workings, government and corporations will be overthrown by citizens and small business, which will be reflected in municipal elections and the stock market.  There will be no major changes to the Internet, and it will be allowed to continue evolving as it has been.

In 2012, I think that we will see a power-struggle in steering this thing called humanity down one path or another.  Both paths appear to be emerging… side-by-side… but history tells us that both cannot exist in the same time and space together for very long.  Perhaps we will be able to tell which path has more people on it in 2012… Perhaps that’s the end of the world as we know it.

Or perhaps, there is a third path, that could be revealed which doesn’t exist on this spectrum. One that only depends on outer-workings and which would require either a global disaster, or scientific discovery which rocked the very foundation of humanity’s knowledge of reality and the way we function within it.  Something that interfered with the system’s daily functioning so immensely, that it just could not continue on in the way that it has.  Individual rights and freedoms are the least of your worries, because they are rendered irrelevant for survival.

For me, personally, in 2012 I want my inner-workings to be dominated by love and compassion.  I want to learn how to belly dance and play the ukulele (perhaps at the same time even).  I want get involved in municipal affairs more directly, and continue to laugh at the emperor… and myself… I want to be a contributing member to my community, and release myself from dependence on many things in my life.

I wish you, who has taken the time to read this silly little blog of mine, all the best for 2012… If you haven’t already, I hope you find your path… and if you have, may you continue to carry it out… undaunted!

2011
12/31
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Is this what a left democracy looks like?

I’ll never forget the feeling when the NDP won their astounding majority in Nova Scotia.  I was elated, as were many lefties.  Especially since at the time I was working deep within the poverty industry here.  An NDP government, to replace a Conservative one which had spent the last few years dismantling social services in the province.

My mom, a borderline Liberal/Conservative supporter, but by no means a political aficionado,  was worried… “Look what the NDP did in BC?” “Yeah, but ma, this is Nova Scotia, not BC… This is a good move for us.”

So far, since the NDP took power, they have cut home heating rebates for low-income Nova Scotians,  increased the HST, they have cut education, they have cut health care,  and most recently, they have allowed Emera to increase residential power rates to subsidize those of foreign corporations engaging in a dying paper industry.  Ummm, Mr. Dexter, how exactly are you giving NS families a better deal?  How are us poor schmucks with families supposed to survive here?

While I understand that the decision to increase rates was made by the ‘independent’ UARB, this decision makes me long for the good old days, when the NDP talked about public utilities, elimination of VLTS, and worker’s co-ops when foreign corporations let our communities down…

And they always do.  Sure, we lure them here with awesome subsidies, to provide jobs that, in some cases, allow those communities to stay alive.  But there is always a price for making deals with the devil.  And bottom line is always bottom line.  The corporation doesn’t care about the community it has hooked on their jobs and economic prosperity… and if the profits run dry, so does their commitment.

Shouldn’t we be attempting to make our small rural communities sustainable and self-sufficient, rather than keeping them attached to the tit of foreign corporations like NewPage or Bowater?  Who sort of engage in practices which smell a little like blackmail… ‘If you don’t give us more breaks, more subsidies, more whatever… we will be forced to close and put all these people out of jobs.”

And now budget time.  Where they ask us, the citizens of NS, to log onto a website and move little slidey things around to come up with a provincial budget.  I suppose doing it online is more cost effective than the last time they asked the citizens of NS to help them make “tough decisions” with Graham Steele’s traveling roadshow… but, despite promises to give every Nova Scotian broadband access by 2010, not all Nova Scotians have access to the high-speed account necessary to access the flash-based exercise. Granted it was the Conservatives who made the promise, the deadline has long passed and I don’t see any option on that budget site which includes revenues generated by the fines the corporations in charge of meeting that deadline should be paying.

But I digress just a little…

Because of my work on the 2010 NSAB, I know that creating a budget is hard work, and requires lots of calculations and lots of projections and, quite frankly, lots of bullshit.  In 2010, the Ministry of Finance tried to scare the hell out of people with a projected $1.4 billion deficit, and used that figure (which some economists questioned) to engage citizens in their first “Back to Balance” exercise, which, in turn rationalized the HST increase.

But what I don’t understand is how a projected $221 million deficit for 2010-2011 is magically turned into a $447.2 million dollar surplus for 2010-2011, and then turns back into a projected $390 million deficit if nothing changes in the 2011-2012 budget… especially given all of the cuts they have been making…

Maybe I’m getting a little off topic, as I tend to do when I get so emotionally and psychologically charged at governance that puts money before people… and appears to completely ignore the full-cost accounting of their policy (such as education cuts today, leading to increased justice bills tomorrow)…  but it was never supposed to be this way with the NDP.

I’m sorry I ever doubted you ma…

2011
11/29
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is this what democracy looks like (part 2 or maybe)

So the question, how can we make this whole Occupy thing work now, has been running over and over in my brain.  After witnessing the events of November 17 (#N17) in NYC via live stream, I realized, “Holy shit, they really can’t let this movement get any bigger can they?”

Occupy is now a threat to the status quo which means if the system does not shortly find a way to satisfactorily deal with it… it will need to be crushed.  In HRM, as in advanced corporatist cities across the planet, the inclination has been to crush.  But heavy handed tactics at the local level have only made the movement bigger and stronger.  Or at least, philosophically so.

It is easy for the independent to get actively involved with the movement. But the number of people who are able to commit and sleep out in those tents are not enough to make a physical stand against the force of the state.  To do so would be putting yourself in harm’s way… and that is not a good idea.

And then we see the footage of liberal arts freshmans getting hosed down with pepper spray by a campus police officer who, based on the footage, clearly does not have the skills to deal with the protesters, he is trained to take down criminals by whatever means necessary.  He is like one of those unfortunate people who revert to beating the dog because they can’t make it do what they want it to…

If it is with the blessing of the state that these kids be treated like criminals… well then, that officer really was behaving exactly as he should, as sanctioned by the people he is paid to protect.  If that is true, then people see just who those people are.  Our tax dollars funding the security of their livelihoods.  Ain’t that a bitch?

Here’s a chance for a thought experiment… Imagine, just for a second, what might happen if instead of beating these kids heads in, we allowed them to experiment with alternative models of community and organization.  Give them a bit of land, let them try things out…  Allow them to work on their processes and try to secure their own livelihoods through the attempted creation of a new system… Let them work towards shifting the paradigm…

Radical, I know…

They have shown us, very clearly, the violence and inequality inherent in the system…

Now, what are we going to do about it?

2011
11/21
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is this what democracy looks like? (part 1 or no)

Last night I participated in my first Occupy Direct Action and General Assembly.  It was an experience that completely demonstrated why Occupy is so important.

Approaching City Hall with a purse full of black strips of material to be used as symbolic mouth gags for anyone who wanted to use them, I wasn’t exactly sure what to expect.  There was a line-up of people signing in, and a flustered clerk trying to keep order…

“What item are you here for?”*

“Uh, I’m just here because I want to watch the council meeting as a member of the public.”

“Yes but what item?”

“No item, I’m here to observe the meeting.”

*huge exasperated sigh* “Sign in and go to Halifax Hall, we will bring you up when we have room for you.”

So we sign in and they give us white plastic visitor passes with a bright red V on them and they herd us down to Halifax Hall where there are a few dozen folks standing around and chatting.  I think it was at that point I said (then tweeted)  something about wondering when they were going to turn on the gas… which got a pretty dirty look from one of the security people there.  Geez these people have no sense of humor.

I then proceed to distribute the 20 or so black mouth gags to the people there to support Occupy NS.  “Wear them or don’t, it’s just a prop if the opportunity presents itself to use them.”  People dig it.

So council session starts and we are all told to sit down so that we can all watch it on this tiny tube television from the 1990′s.  Clearly they are not going to let us upstairs.  Apparently no one is allowed to stand up in Halifax Hall when they are there as overflow and watching the proceedings on that crappy TV.  No one that is, except the uniformed police officers who have entered the room and are standing very stoically behind the 15 rows of chairs.

Announcements… a couple of councilors take this time to try out some one liners… one apologizes for making a joke about rather getting a root canal than wanting to come to work tonight, which elicits some laughter and groans from the folks in the Hall.

“Ladies and Gentlemen,” the clerk nervously speaks, “when you are in this Hall it is exactly the same as if you are upstairs in chambers.  This means there will be no laughing, talking or any forms of protest while you are here.”

Um, seriously? But we all comply.

Then we get to a motion from Debbie Hum to add a discussion of the events of November 11 and 12 to the agenda… to which Peter Kelly calls on the solicitor who recommends that council not speak of the events because it is before the courts.

Dawn Sloane inquires why when issues involving developers have been before the courts they were still allowed public discussion… And then the sound turns off.

“Can you turn the sound back on?” someone asks the clerk.

“The sound is turned off because the Mayor turned it off.”

People grumble and protest… “But if what happens here in Halifax Hall is exactly the same as what happens upstairs… we should be able to hear what is happening!!!”

“Ladies and Gentlemen please…” she is getting flustered and as if the Mayor is aware of everything going on in Halifax Hall… the sound comes on and everyone focuses back on the screen.

Then the vote… 16-8.  No public discussion of Occupy NS and the events of November 11 and 12.

The room erupts in a series of groans and cat calls of “Shame!” A bunch of people, myself included, get up and loudly leave Halifax Hall.

I couldn’t believe the visceral response I had to that vote.  I had to get up and leave or else I think I would have started throwing shit around and got myself arrested for sure.

We all gather outside the doors of city hall and wait for the General Assembly to start.  Intermittently, cops walk around us on the street rather than through us on the sidewalk, to get into city hall.  I think I counted 4 sets of two officers go into the building over a 30 minute period… I was wondering what was going on inside to warrant such a presence… most of the “riffraff” and rabble rousers were now outside on the pavement smoking cigarettes and giving each other hugs.

I was happy to hear that the Occupiers who stayed behind used the gags for a poignant photo op.

It is very concerning when we, educated and concerned citizens, attempt to extend our Charter rights to peaceful protest and demonstration… one of the supposed “checks” built into our beloved democracy to disagree with our leaders and the tyranny of the majority.  A majority that has been placated with cultural SOMA and brainwashed to believe that they are free.

Occupy is exposing a lot of the lies of our system…  exposing the violence inherent in it when it is questioned or opposed, exposing the myths of personal freedom, and exposing how far we have allowed democracy to stray from the original philosophies it was born from.

Is this what democracy looks like?  I should hope not.

*please note that words in quotes are not direct, but used to facilitate the telling of this story as a narrative. 

2011
11/16
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i’m glad i’m not a leader

i’m glad i’m not a leader

and i can tell you why

i like my ladies dirty

and i’m not even a guy.

if i was leader of anything

they’d want me clean and straight

or at least wearing a pantsuit

and closely watching my weight.

i once thought i was a leader

conducted myself in turn.

But

responsibility

caused anxiety

and made my stomach churn.

i’m glad i’m not a leader

but here is the trouble you see

i’m having a really hard time

finding someone i want to lead me!

2011
11/14
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a little occupy rant

I was so excited when the Occupy Movement began.

“Finally,” I thought, “My revolution has begun!”

Some of my more ‘rational’ friends scoffed at me, and the band of rag-tag gypsies who began Occupying Wall Street under the banner of Anonymous.

“A bunch of thugs,” one friend said, “If they want to protest, they should do it with their votes.”

“Anarchists don’t even understand their own political philosophy,” another said, “This system is the best one we’ve got.”

“This is not a revolution… No substantive change is going to come from this movement.”

I have a lot of friends who hold this position on the Occupy Movement, which is really just the academic version of the “get a job/pull your self up by the bootstraps” critique of it all.  The folks who I have talked to about Occupy, who hold this perspective on the Movement, are, for all intensive purposes, experts of the system.  They are wonks who don’t appear to believe that emergent horizontal social organization is a viable alternative to the traditional hierarchical system we have.   Further, they appear to have no faith in the notion that human species is capable of self-governance.

They intimately understand and acknowledge all of the flaws within the current system, but still believe the process works.  They would say that ultimately, if you want to protest the status quo… you do it with your vote, our system has checks and balances built into it which allow for critique to emerge.  They say that Occupy would be much more effective if they came into the fold of the political process and tried to make change within the system.

So I’m going to swim this thought into a little case study.

In 2009, the people of Nova Scotia voted in the most left-wing party that they could in an astonishing majority.  A majority even bigger than the one Stephen Harper currently holds federally.  The citizens of Nova Scotia gave the NDP that majority with a mandate to change the status quo of provincial operations.  They protested the way things were going with their votes… loud and clear.

Today, in 2011, we find our beloved NDP giving major corporations like Bowater, Sobeys and Irving millions of our tax dollars.  While they hike the HST and cut monthly benefits of mentally ill individuals.

So how does that work again?

We, the citizens of Nova Scotia protested with our votes… and look where we are today…

Our politics are broken I’m afraid.

So back to Occupy.  Here we have a group of people… bonded together with common values and beliefs… which are fundamentally different than those values and beliefs our whole friggin’ system is based on.  Unlike the wonks, the occupiers understand that our system is fundamentally broken, and it is going to take a freaking revolution in order for it to be fundamentally fixed.

We can no longer duct tape the hole in the gas tank anymore.  It is time to replace it.

They are frustrated… We are frustrated.  We can no longer sit around and watch the disintegration of our communities anymore.  We can no longer watch our brothers and sisters suffering in unnecessary poverty.  We can no longer allow traditional perspectives and policies to interfere with personal and societal evolution.  We have unplugged ourselves from the Matrix… and there is no going back.

And so, there are these little and big tent cities emerging.  Tent cities of  the unplugged.  Some of the residents having been that way for a long time already.  The homeless, the anarchists, the lost… And that scares a lot of people.

And so…

Remembrance Day, Halifax, 2011.

Occupy NS  Tent City is currently disbanded… still waiting to hear if it is coming back.  But, even if it doesn’t come back, does that mean it was a failure?  I think not, because it got some of the traditional apologists riled up too… those experts within the system that always fall back on the “well it’s the best system we got” defense when you try to engage them in a discussion about revolution.

Because the unlimited nature of corporatist power was pushed this weekend… as it has been and is currently being pushed in Occupy camps across the planet.  And that is scaring the onlookers even more than the economic crisis, peak-oil or global warming the Occupy Movement is trying to address with their actions.

2011
11/13
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Stomping on Poppies

October 15, 2011 – Occupy NS begins in Grand Parade Square

October 25, 2011  – Occupy NS served with a relocation order – asked to move to Commons by November 6th so that city can prepare for some military ceremonies.

October 28, 2011 – Mayor Kelly goes in for photo op, leading Occupy NS camp, veterans, and Haligonians to believe that he is a decent fella

October 31, 2011 – After putting the decision through processes of deliberative democracy… Occupy NS agrees to move temporarily for the Remembrance Day Ceremonies

November 6, 2011 – Protesters go good on their word and move to Victoria Park, also an acceptable relocation space according to Kelly

November 8, 2011 – HRM City Council holds an in-camera meeting and votes to evict Occupy NS Camp

November 11, 2011 – Police move in on the Occupy NS camp and dismantle it and arrest at least 15 peaceful protesters

Question #1:

Why go through the motions of trying to compromise… work with the Occupiers… why offer them relocation areas when you full well know there is going to be an eviction anyway?

The optics turn out to be shit for the city because the folks in tents down there played by their rules… they did what the city asked them to do… without incident… with much respect.   And it wasn’t just the politicians and veterans that the Occupiers listened to… it was the citizens who supported and disagreed with them that they listened to.  Frig some of them even listened to the trolls lurking around the Occupy NS Facebook group… The Occupiers actually behaved as I wish more of our politicians would behave.  They listened, they talked, and they made a good decision.

And once the Occupiers complied, they actually empowered themselves and took away the legitimate authority to raid the camp.

I think the city really wanted the Occupiers to continue to be disobedient… like a dom standing over a sub just waiting for one misplaced move so that the whip can crack with meaning.

Question #2:

Why wait until November 11?

Or was it a matter of waiting at all?  Was it an eviction of opportunity… because it was raining and you were thinking that no one would rally in the piss pouring rain?

It seems to me that the decision to evict under these particular circumstances was hasty and ill-made.  And shows the hypocrisy and narcissism of our Mayor.

Perhaps our city council should take a lesson from Occupy NS on deliberative decision-making towards the will of the people.

The only thing this Remembrance Day demonstrated to me, was that these kids have a better understanding of civil society than the folks who are running this city.

I’ll never forget the day that Mayor Kelly Stomped all over the Poppies… November 11, 2011…

2011
11/11
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Regional Communication & Rural Sustainability

The Newfoundland Rural Secretariat asked Network 11 participants:

How can regional communication be enhanced towards rural sustainability in NL?

I responded.

Social capital has been identified as an important resource towards sustainable development in both rural and urban settings (see work from Robert Putnam, Richard Florida).  However, from the rural perspective, geography remain a significant factor in sustainable development.  Distance still remains a barrier (see work from Looker and Thiessen).

Distance between rural communities often leads to the bonding of social capital to isolated networks inside the community, rather than bridging it to other networks outside the community.

Studies have shown that bridging between social networks has positive effects on economic development, for the individual (see Beugelsdijk and Smulders “Bridging and Bonding Social Capital: Which type is good for economic growth?”) and for a region (see Knudsen, Flordia and Rousseau “Bridging and Bonding:  A Multi-dimensional Approach to Regional Social Capital).  A certain level of bonding networks is necessary for bridging to have lasting effects. However, too much bonding within social networks can have negative effects on economic growth.

A regional communication infrastructure is important for the creation and conversion of social capital in communities.  In NL, regional communication has been taking place in the form of participatory media events.

Successful communication infrastructures have emerged within communities, however, there still lacks an important element for it to start yielding convertible social capital – connectedness.  While “bonding” networks have formed within communities, the focus now should shift to “bridging” those networks across rural NL.

When it comes to the communication infrastructure in rural NL, these are suggestions towards bridging communities together towards the common goal of regional sustainable development:

  • create a central network of all of the communication groups using social media
  • follow the model of informal organization (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Informal_Organization)
  • ensure the infrastructure remains citizen owned and operated
  • engage in practices of mutual promotion of community activities
  • share knowledge, resources, skills and technology (perhaps a technical library)
  • gather face to face regularly to reinforce connections made between members as mediated experiences (rotating unconferences in communities)
2011
10/20
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Facebook Groups vs. Facebook Pages

*this was originally posted in the Network 11 Facebook group as a doc to assist community media practitioners decide which  would work best for their community’s needs.

Facebook offers two types of community organizing and promotion tools: pages and groups.

Pages and Groups offer different features and are intended for specific uses.

This post will try to explain the differences so that you can decide which platform works best for your community station.

You are reading this post in a Facebook Group. The Network 11 Facebook Group in fact!

This group is open, in that any member of the Facebook can come to this address and view the content if they have a Facebook profile.  And any member of the Facebook can request to join this group.  When a person becomes a member of this group, they can add new members to it.

A person is never sent a “request” to join a group, the default setting is for people to be automatically added.

The default settings for groups is to receive email notification any time a member of the group posts to it.  You can change those settings by clicking the “edit notifications” button in the top right of the group home page.

You can share links, photos, videos, polls and docs to a Facebook group.  You can also have live chat with all group members that are online at the same time.

You can post to Facebook groups from email.  For this group, members can email network11@groups.facebook.com and the email will show up as a post in this group.

Ryakuga on Facebook is a Facebook Page.

A Facebook Page has a single “official” voice.  It can have multiple administrators, but all posts appear on the page as from a single voice.  For example, the Ryakuga Page could have 4 administrators, but regardless of who posts, it will always just show as a post from Ryakuga.

If a Facebook Page is published, it can be seen by any member of the public regardless of if they have a Facebook account.  Anyone with a Facebook account can “like” a Facebook page, and they will receive updates in their news feed of activity.

Settings controls are a lot more detailed with Facebook Pages than with Facebook Groups.  There are a variety of viewing and posting options. People who “like” a Facebook Page can add links, photos, videos and contribute to discussion forums on the page.

Anyone who likes a Facebook Page can recommend the page to anyone on their friends list.  It comes in the form of an invitation.

Pages can “like” other Pages, and administrators are given the option of using the Facebook as the Page.  So the Ryakuga Page could post to the Network 11 Group.

These are a few of the major differences between Groups and Pages.

The general rule is that Groups are used for horizontally organized information sharing among members.  Pages are more for promotional/public relations purposes.

2011
10/20
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Network 11

This weekend I am volunteering for an interesting project.   Community media practitioners from across rural Newfoundland are scheduled to meet at the Bonne Bay Marine Station in Norris Point to hold an unconference on participatory media called Network 11.

I happened upon this project through my work with the Ryakuga Collaborative,  a not-for-profit communications company specializing in the facilitation of participatory media events.  My role in the collaborative is “social networking administrator” (though I always prefer virtual community organizer as a title for such things).

Basically I have set up the Facebook, Twitter, and blog… and will attempt to coordinate participants’ social media activity during the event from Dartmouth, NS.  Augmenting the event with Facebook has a few purposes. First, it expands the reach of the discussion to those who want to participate but are not physically present.  Second, it creates a virtual community space for networking.  And third, it creates a reference archive of the event.

These purposes will be fulfilled, provided there is significant and diverse participation with the Network 11 participants physically present at the event.   I have suggested the following ways for them to participate

  •  invite people to this group who will be interested in participating from away
  •  share content (photos, discussions, music, etc) from the event in this group by uploading directly to it
  •  use docs to post information from report back sessions
  •  share links and external sources discussed among participants during the event
  •  create events of the workshop sessions as they emerge
  •  use group chat feature while on-air, incorporate it into on-air programming
  •  upload photos to your personal Facebook account and tag it with Network 11 or Ryakuga
  •  upload content in the group/on the page of your community/radio project and tag it with Network 11
  • tag locations and photos of people also on Facebook
Over the next few days I will be posting things that come from this event which are adaptable to a variety sustainable community development contexts.  I hope they can be used in productive ways.
2011
10/20
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